Alright, let's get this straight. The Trade Desk (TTD) drops its Q3 numbers, beats expectations, and gives a Q4 forecast that's better than expected. So what happens? The stock tanks 7.4% in the afternoon. Give me a break.
Okay, the revenue jump of 17.7% year-over-year to $739.4 million is solid. And that Q4 forecast of $840 million? Not bad. But the market's acting like someone just announced the apocalypse. What gives?
Oh, right, the capital expenditures. They blew $70 million in Q3 alone, after already dropping $110 million in the first half of the year. So, they spent more this quarter than in the previous two combined? Suddenly, the market's "meaningful, but not fundamentally changing" perception starts to make a little more sense.
But wait, there's more! They authorized a $500 million share repurchase program. Because that always screams "confidence" when you're simultaneously burning cash and trying to prop up your stock price. It's like trying to bail out a sinking ship with a bucket that has holes in it.
And another thing—this stock is already a freakin' rollercoaster. They've had 28 moves greater than 5% in the last year. Twenty-eight! That's basically gambling, not investing.
Seven days before this little drama, the stock was up 2.5% thanks to some good news from Apple, Amazon, Cloudflare, and Coinbase. AWS saw revenue jump 20%, Cloudflare soared 30.7%, and Coinbase had a killer quarter. So, the whole tech sector was riding high. But The Trade Desk? Nope.
This is a company trading 69.4% below its 52-week high. Sixty-nine point freakin' four! An investment of $1,000 in The Trade Desk five years ago is now worth $560.98. That's less than half of what you put in, over five years! So maybe, just maybe, the investors aren't totally wrong to be a little jumpy. According to Why The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Is Falling Today - The Globe and Mail, there are multiple factors influencing the stock's performance.
I mean, seriously, what are they even spending all this money on? Details on that are scarce, offcourse, because transparency is apparently optional these days. Are they building a freakin' Death Star?
The market acts like a moody teenager. One minute it's all sunshine and rainbows, the next it's a full-blown meltdown over something completely trivial.
And the share repurchase program? It's like putting lipstick on a pig. It might make the stock look a little prettier in the short term, but it doesn't change the fact that the company is bleeding cash.
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe everyone else is seeing something I'm not. Nah.
This ain't a "buy the dip" situation. This is a "maybe it's time to cut your losses" situation. The Trade Desk might have a good quarter, but the underlying problems are still there. Until they can show some real fiscal discipline, I'm staying far, far away.
