Nvidia News Today: What We Know – What Reddit is Saying

Nvidia's been the darling of Wall Street for good reason. Its GPUs are powering the AI revolution, and the stock's reflected that, jumping 1,390% in the last three years. (That's not a typo.) A ten-grand investment back in October 2022 would be worth nearly $150,000 today. But is the easy money gone? Are we overlooking the less flashy, but perhaps more fundamentally sound, play in the AI gold rush?

The Case for TSMC

The argument goes like this: Nvidia faces increasing competition. AMD is nipping at its heels, having just signed a deal with OpenAI. And the big boys – Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, even Tesla – are all developing their own in-house chips. Nvidia currently boasts over 90% market share in GPUs. That's not sustainable.

Enter Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC). While Nvidia designs the chips, TSMC builds them. CEO Jensen Huang even calls TSMC's fabrication process "magic." The company churned out more than 11,800 different products in 2024, using 288 separate processes. Sixty percent of their revenue comes from those cutting-edge 3nm and 5nm chips. Smaller circuits mean more power. TSMC is one of the few that can mass-produce those 3nm chips, and they're gearing up for 2nm this year.

Here's the kicker: TSMC isn't just building chips for Nvidia. They're building them for AMD, Apple, Alphabet, Qualcomm – basically, everyone. Statista puts TSMC's market share in semiconductor fabrication at around 70%. And that's unlikely to change dramatically. So, even if AMD or some internal project steals market share from Nvidia, they'll likely still need TSMC to make those chips. It's like selling shovels during the gold rush.

TSMC's financials paint a compelling picture. They're consistently hitting $10 billion per month in revenue. Fourth-quarter guidance projects $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion in revenue, with a 50% operating margin. Revenue is growing at a steady clip, holding at 36% year-over-year growth.

Month | Net Revenue | Year-Over-Year Change

------- | -------- | --------

January 2025 | $9.59 billion | 39.5%

February 2025 | $8.50 billion | 43.1%

March 2025 | $9.35 billion | 46.5%

April 2025 | $11.43 billion | 48.1%

May 2025 | $10.48 billion | 39.6%

June 2025 | $8.63 billion | 26.9%

July 2025 | $10.57 billion | 25.8%

August 2025 | $10.98 billion | 33.8%

September 2025 | $10.10 billion | 31.4%

Total | $90.42 billion | 36.4%

Next year's revenue is expected to exceed $147 billion. Wall Street seems to agree, with revenue estimates steadily rising throughout the year.

The Geopolitical Wildcard

Now, let's address the elephant in the room: geopolitical risk. Trade barriers, tariffs, and potential tensions surrounding Taiwan are genuine concerns. The Biden administration's CHIPS Act (and now, presumably, any continuation of that policy under a second Trump term) aims to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S.

TSMC isn't blind to this. They're investing heavily in Arizona, committing $165 billion to build six fabrication plants in the north Phoenix area. They're already making Nvidia Blackwell chips there. CEO C.C. Wei said they'll continue to invest in Taiwan but will accelerate production expansion and technology upgrades in the U.S. This diversification is key. Manufacturing chips in the U.S. mitigates tariff risks and political headwinds.

I’ve looked at hundreds of these expansion plans, and the speed with which TSMC is moving in Arizona is genuinely impressive. It's not just about building capacity; it's about future-proofing their business against potential disruptions.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, recently claimed "visibility into half a trillion dollars of cumulative Blackwell and early ramps of Rubin through 2026." That's a staggering number, no question. But it also highlights the pressure Nvidia is under to deliver on that demand. Can they maintain their technological edge? Can they fend off competitors? TSMC, on the other hand, is positioned to profit regardless of who wins the AI chip war. Jensen Huang Just Gave Investors 1 Incredible Reason to Buy Nvidia Stock Hand Over Fist

A Safer Bet in a High-Stakes Game

TSMC offers exposure to the AI boom without betting on a single horse. While Nvidia's upside potential might be higher, TSMC provides a more diversified and, frankly, less stressful investment. The risk/reward profile is simply more appealing. If you believe in the long-term growth of AI, betting on the company that makes the picks and shovels might just be the smartest move.